NBA 2010 Season Preview

by Jack Maidment

And so it was that months of speculation came to an end. With the simple blow of a whistle this evening the NBA season will begin, banishing, or at least relegating, any thoughts of free agency and draft pondering for, well, a few weeks at least.

Unless your are a Knicks fan I guess.

The over-saturation of the media has effectively made fiends of all basketball fans around the world. With news and hopeless rumours available at our fingertips, a day in which literally nothing happens is greeted with the shakes and level 3 cold turkey. I NEED A FIX. Something more nourishing than Glen Davis’s contract stipulations. Something more nutritious than The Dunk That Didn’t Happen.

Luckily for us the NBA is back and the players are geared up to go. Tip off beckons and and all of the speculation that accompanied the draft and summer league is replaced by actual basketball that means something, where putting the ball in the hoop means more than a new contract and a bigger house.

Ultimately its about wins. For the League’s best it is time to begin the arduous and troublesome ascent toward a Championship. For the basement dwellers the new season represents the opportunity to gain restore some respect to once great franchises and to set course for better days. Faith must be found and trust must be given.

The questions that have existed since June now become more important. With the first game about to be played our answers become something more than mere guesswork and preference. Evidence aids a constant re-evaluation.

With that in mind, now is the final time that wild predictions can be made with a relatively clear conscience: no evidence, just opinion. Whatever happens form here on in is based on results and stats and evaluation. If you want to be a mystic or a psychic or a preacher, now is the time.

East? The fact is that the three top teams in the East are so close to each other that betting on the victor is unbelievably difficult. The Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic will be 1,2,3 in the Eastern but in which order is anybodies guess.

Many people would point to a healthy Celtics team as the favourites and they would probably be right. But, how many times has a team that needs to be healthy to have a chance ever been healthy when the time comes? Once Injury rears its ugly head it is essentially impossible to banish. Without Garnett or Pierce, Boston will not be advancing past the Conference Semi Finals.

Cleveland? Imagine if LeBron goes down for any amount of time. Doesn’t bear thinking about. Even with the King firing on all cylinders the Cavs will have their work cut out beating a collectively more talented Orlando Magic team. Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard. 4 All-Stars. Can LeBron and his new running (!) mate take that down? I say not. Orlando Advances.

That is to say nothing about the teams occupying the middle echelon of the East. Toronto Raptors have enough talent and fire power to be a fantastic dark horse selection. Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani will hold the fort down low and Hedo Turkoglu coupled with DeMar DeRozan and Jose Calderon have a nice balance of scoring, clutch, decision making and athletic potential.

The same can be said of the Atlanta Hawks who, with the addition of Jamal Crawford, return one of the most potent teams in the League. The question is whether or not the ATL can up there defense against the NBA’s best.

The rest will be a toss up, entirely reliant on ifs and buts. Miami? Need heroics from Wade and sanity from Beasley. Philadelphia? A breakout from Andre Igoudala and return from Elton Brand will help, but with no recognisable point, who is steering the ship?

A new defensive identity could see the Memphis Grizzlies make a return to relevance, but the addition of Allen Iverson is unlikely to mark the dawn of a intensity on D. Charlotte Bobcats, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls? Mediocrity beckons with the Bulls the most likely to plunge or sky rocket.

West? The Los Angeles Lakers should be even better than they were last season with Artest bringing more to the team than Ariza, regardless of age. A healthy Lakers will make it back to the Conference Finals. Who will meet them is a little tricky.

The San Antonio Spurs will be in the mix as long as Mr Duncan is around and their supporting cast is second only to the Lakeshow. Dejuan Blair will prove to be the steal of the Draft and Manu, Parker and Jefferson will join Timmy D as part of one of the best starting line ups League wide.

The Denver Nuggets are no where near as deep as the Spurs or Lakers and will do well to scale the hieghts of last year. Portland still needs experience while the Jazz just look messy in the front court.

The conference is undoubtedly talented but other than the Lakers nobody sits above anybody else.

Too many questions. But there will be answers. Just enjoy the process. NBA 2010.

NBA Rookie Ratings: Tyreke Evans, The Next Derrick Rose?

by Jack Maidment

Whose the best? This guy is.

Or at least that is what countless General Managers around the League would have you believe. As far as guards go, Tyreke Evans is the most highly regarded and highly rated in this years’ rookie class.

Sure Johnny Flynn is nice and what he did at Syracuse last year, especially in their major 6 overtime win over Connecticut, was as close to heroism as you are ever likely to see. And sure, Ricky Rubio may be The Next Big Thing out of Europe and the best young player not playing in the NBA. And nobody in this draft can score like Stephen Curry from the guard spots, who has many a coach purring over the abilities that made him the 7^th overall pick coming out of Davidson College. James Harden may well be the player who can contribute to his team the most in the back court.

But. Before an NBA regular season game is played, with the exception of Sam Presti of the Thunder, 99% of the other teams would almost certainly elect to take Evans on board and into their back court given the chance.

So what makes the West Chester, Philadelphia native such an attractive proposition. It probably isn’t the fact that the man apparently running the point in Sacramento this coming season has never really played the position full time before or that his jump shot needs some work before it can be classed as at least passable.

Despite his perceived deficiencies, the upside of Tyreke Evans is enough to make those in charge of NBA franchises across the land sit up and listen.

A year in college at Memphis will have given Evans a taste for big time basketball but the leap to the pros should hurt nobody more than the next member of the ‘one and done’ club. Or at least you would have though that, especially for a point guard, if Derrick Rose hadn’t poured gasoline all over the League last season before igniting in the Playoffs.

Before Rose, the rule book was fairly sturdy and solid: playing point in the world’s best basketball league is not easy and learning it’s ins and outs takes dedication and patience. After Rose? Anything is possible. If you are an immensely talented guard who has the strength and drive to decimate any defense, preferably out of Memphis, the League beware.

Fortunately for Evans, Sacramento isn’t going anywhere fast with just about the worst roster in the NBA, at least in terms of competing this coming year. That should mean that the 20 year old has the opportunity to grow into the League and the position along with his other young ( and promising) team mates.

The lottery may be beckoning the Kings once again before even a whistle has been blown in anger but with Evans and his, whisper it, potential, they can at least ring their cow bells safe in the knowledge that their will be a future for their team.

That is unless the franchise decides to move.

I guess some things are never certain.

NBA Sophomores: Why Joe Alexander, Anthony Randolph and Danilo Gallinari Are All Poised To Succeed.

by Jack Maidment

Anthony Randolph, Joe Alexander and Danilo Gallinari were all top 15 picks in the 2008 NBA Draft and after a year in which a certain number of their peers have made an impact to be proud of these three have done everything but over achieve.

Each of these individuals’ situation is different; each one one with different reasons why they have not necessarily grabbed the headlines they may have envisioned on draft night.

For Randolph, taken 14^th overall by the Golden State Warriors, his relative mediocrity can be assigned to age and lack of experience: heading into his sophomore NBA season he will be a sprightly 20 years old.

He played his first year as a Warrior while still a teenager. This may well account for his solid but not explosive numbers, but it also highlights the reason why he got drafted early in the first round despite only one year of college at LSU: potential.

6 ft 10 in. with all of the athleticism and quickness to play any of the front court positions. Raw was the word that described Randolph last year. He was unpolished. But hell he was a 19 year old kid.

Drafting on potential has long been viewed critically especially when players who could have contributed more immediately may have still been on the board. But Randolph’s performances in the Summer League just gone caused a collective light bulb moment for hoop heads and NBA personnel alike: this young man can play.

The much vaunted potential of a draft pick which so often comes to nothing appears to be more than hype, Randolph is becoming absolutely real.

Detractors will tell you that Summer League is Summer League and that performances in Las Vegas are impossible to translate or project onto the regular season. The past has provided enough evidence that this is a warranted theory yet disposing of pessismism for a second, couldn’t Randolph’s numbers this past off season be the signal that more is to come? The past cannot predict the future after all. Perhaps Randolph will be the exception that breaks the rule.

The situation in Golden State will certainly provide Randolph with the opportunity to make noise this coming season with little competition in the front court: most of the Warrior’s problems will be in trying to accommodate Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson in the same back court.

As for Alexander, the 8^th overall pick by the Milwaukee Bucks, his quiet debut year is similar to so many rookies who are drafted to teams regardless of what they already have at each position.

Praised as the best overall athlete of his class (second most bench reps, second highest reach, second fastest ¾ sprint time) the West Virginia product arrived at the Bucks knowing full well that playing time would be scarce with Richard Jefferson at starting forward.

You only need look at the top performing rookies to know that there is an undeniable correlation between playing time and improvement: it is a rare rookie indeed who can warrant his draft pick status coming off the bench for a few minutes every game.

With that in mind Alexander should have every chance to build upon last year’s limited experience after the Bucks dumped Jefferson and his contract on a grateful San Antonio, thus freeing up valuable playing time and in all likelihood placing the starting small forward position in the hands of the second year man.

With more minutes comes more responsibility and Alexander will be relied upon to shoulder a large proportion of the offensive load. Playing with rookie point guard Brandon Jennings at a high tempo should guarantee many fast break points for a forward who few will beat down the floor.

Danilo Gallinari meanwhile will enter his second year in much the same was as Greg Oden did last year with injuries ensuring that the Italian will be the least experienced of any sophomore.

The back injury that kept Gallinari sidelined all last year has apparently been banished and the man drafted #6 overall by the New York Knicks last year will finally have the opportunity to warrant his lofty selection.

Getting drafted ahead of first year standouts Brook Lopez and Eric Gordon should be enough to make Gallinari feel a little pressure and comments from his coach have assured that scrutiny will be high on the man labelled ‘the best shooter’ that Mike D’Antoni has ever worked with.

Playing in a front court rotation that includes David Lee, Al Harrington, Darko Milicic and Jordan Hill, Gallinari should experience enough playing time at the small forward position to make an impact on a squad that will do well to do anything other than tread water the year before the 2010 sweepstakes.

3 forwards, 3 similarly underwhelming rookie campaigns. The cruel world of revisionist history will use the coming 2010 season as a barometer as to whether or not these players will be remembered as wise investments or busts. So let us for once give potential and positivity a chance and believe that Gallinari, Randolph and Alexander will all be sophomore successes.

After all, we can all just jump on the bust bandwagon next year instead.

NBA Season Preview: Dirk’s Dallas Mavericks Coming For That #1 Spot?

by Jack Maidment

So apart from the fact that they have the most divisive owner in the entire NBA, what else do the Dallas Mavericks have to arrest your attention?

Sure everyone is talking about the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs are also receiving a large amount of heat. Even the Portland Trailblazers, Orlando Magic and the Denver Nuggets are at the very least on people’s Championship radar. Dallas Mavericks as actual viable contenders? Not for most people.

Since their capitulation in the Finals against Miami swiftly followed by their, uh, capitulation to the Golden State Warriors the Mavericks are very much the NBA’s forgotten team.

They make the Western Conference Semi Finals and yet are rewarded by just about no faith in their ability to go any further this coming season. Boston, LA and Cleveland closely followed by San Antonio, Portland, Orlando, maybe Denver. It will be one of those teams that gets their hands on Larry in June.

And yet.

The core that pushed Denver so close returns with the exception of their back up big man Brandon Bass who has signed with the Magic. That means that the best scoring power forward in the NBA today, Dirk Nowitzki, will try to lead a squad forward that has done just about nothing but improve since their exit in the 2009 playoffs.

The Spurs may have added Richard Jefferson. The Cavaliers may have added Shaquille O’Neal. But don’t sleep on the move that the Mavs made to bring Shawn Marion to Dallas this off season.

Regardless of his past two seasons in which his production has suffered as a result of changing locations and team members The Matrix remains one of the most versatile players in the League today. A combination of size, quickness and athleticism realistically allow Marion to cover any player on the floor and create a tricky match up problem on offense. Points, rebounds, assists, steals. You name it, Marion does it.

Imagine the unique skills of the former Phoenix Sun and imagine the possibilities of him playing with Jason Kidd on the fast break.

Now imagine the offensive capabilities of a squad made up of Jason Kidd, Josh Howard, Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and JJ Barea.

The one piece that the Mavericks lack is a legitimate athletic big man to hold down the middle as was exposed by the ultra mobile front three of the Denver Nuggets in last years playoffs. Marion’s defensive prowess helps relieve this problem slightly, but the lack of absolutely quality big men in the West and the league in general should allow the Mavs to live with the best teams in the paint.

They will hope that their offense can counteract their defensive deficiencies.

Will the Mavericks win the title next year? The talent on their roster suggests that writing them off completely would be foolish and such a dismissal would only put you in the horrible position to receive an ‘I told you so’ from Sports Most Gracious Owner, Mark Cuban, if Dallas prove everybody wrong.

I’m playing it safe.

NBA Season Preview: Where’s the love for Orlando?

by Jack Maidment

Vince Carter for Hedo Turkoglu? 6 years ago this would have been the ultimate no brainer, like asking a wrestling fan to play favourites with The Hurricane or The Rock.

In fact, despite Carter’s decline due to ageing knees and the inevitable rot that playing for the Nets induces, he remains one of the best scorers and offensive weapons in the League.

The Orlando Magic gave up a lot of pieces to acquire Half Man Half Amazing but when you consider how well he fits with their current roster, the cost of the move (both monetarily and in lost player personnel) seems to be worth their while.

The team may have lost a small point forward who posed their opponents countless match up problems last year, but in Carter they add a player capable of shooting from deep and taking it to the basket in a much more athletic and dynamic way. How many times did you see Hedo dunk it last year? You can argue that dunks aren’t too important and that 2 points is 2 points from anywhere. But. With Carter going to the hole a lot more than Turkoglu the floor instantly spreads that little bit extra giving the likes of Jameer Nelson, Rashard lewis and Mickael Pietrus that much more room to operate.

His shooting ability also ensures the defence has to play true to him allowing Orlando’s resident beast the space he needs to rip the boards down or go to work when he finally develops a go-to post move.

A different player who creates a different match up problem, but a problem all the same. There is little doubt that Anthony Parker, Paul Pierce, Delonte West and Ray Allen are much looking forward to their defensive assignments when the Magic come calling next year.

The big question is: why is everyone sleeping on Orlando?

The majority of the talk seems to be revolving around a Cleveland-Los Angeles Finals just like was predicted last year, and we all no what happened with that.

If it isn’t LeBron and Kobe it is Paul Pierce and co who are filling the column inches. The return of Garnett and the addition of Rasheed Wallace apparently makes them favourites if they stay healthy, or at least The Truth thinks so.

So, despite making the Finals last year for only the second time in franchise history, the Orlando Magic are apparently out of the picture. Even though by adding Carter they improve. Even though by adding Brandon Bass and resigning Marcin Gortat they significantly strengthened their front court. Even though Dwight Howard will have another year of improvement under his Superman cape. Even though they made the Finals without their starting point guard.

Are you serious?

The Cavs, Lakers and Celtics all deserve heat, no question, but to ignore the Magic as absolute contenders and maybe even the team to beat is to not only disregard last year’s achievements, but also their potential going into this year to improve.

Orlando Magic, next year’s team on Parade Street? You better believe it.

NBA Rookie Ratings: James Harden Is Just What The Oklahoma City Thunder Need.

by Jack Maidment

Carmelo Anthony, Ben Gordon, Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Deron Williams, OJ Mayo.

What do all of these players have in common? All were taken 3^rd overall in their respective Draft classes.

Look at the list and think about the amount of talent that has been sniffed at until 1 and 2 are done. Since 1997, with Chauncey Billups heading to the Boston Celtics, the 3^rd pick has more often than not been a major addition to the NBA.

Every player taken third in the recent past has not exploded like those above, indeed their have been players who have failed to deliver on the promise that accompanies such a high draft choice: Adam Morrison, Darius Miles and Raef LaFrentz are proof of that.

However, certainly more often than not the guy going third has been fairly studly.

Enter this year’s Mr Number 3, James Harden, taken by the Oklahoma City Thunder with their first draft pick since moving from Seattle.

Harden enjoyed two extremely solid seasons while playing for Arizona State averaging 20 in his second year. Combine that with 5.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists and you have the epitome of an extremely solid and effective college player.

His numbers don’t scream ‘SUPERSTAR’ like Kevin Durant’s did after his one season playing in Texas. Nevertheless his stats certainly seem to justify his 3^rd selection status.

However, the run of great players going at 3 does not welcome the solid numbers of Harden. If you go 3 you need something more. Billups? Arguably the best leader in the League (although admittedly it took him a while to get there). Anthony? Best scorer in the NBA. Williams? Tied best point guard in the L. Gordon? Mr End of Game. Gasol? 3^rd best power forward in the NBA with more trophies than he can carry.

You get the idea.

So perhaps Harden will break the run of great 3^rd picks with his solid, but not otherworldly skillset. But on a team that boasts Kevin Durant, who will be in the Best Player in the Game discussions after this year, the Thunder don’t need a star. Harden’s ability to get points will help dilute the scoring load that currently rests with Durant, Westbrook and Green. That’s 4 players who can all get 20 a night without too much fuss.

If Harden can fulfil that task for the Thunder, Oklahoma’s third pick will entirely have vindicated his selection.

NBA Rookie Ratings: Hasheem Thabeet has the shoulders to carry the weightiest of expectations.

by Jack Maidment

It is up there with all of the other clichés, but it is oh so very true: you can’t teach tall.

Of all the world’s popular games, basketball more than any other (except perhaps sumo wrestling) is best suited to those people with a very specific body type.

That is not to say that a tall player is guaranteed to be a good basketball player and similarly a vertically challenged player is not guaranteed to be ineffective. You only have to look at the success that many players have had despite measuring up at less than 6 feet: Allen Iversen. No elaboration needed.

However, one thing that is assured is that an extremely tall person with very little skill or experience is more likely to be picked up than a shorter player with above average skills: they may not be able to make a jump shot, but their mere physical presence on the court is enough to warrant a roster spot.

This may be the case at pick up games, high school and even college, but height is not enough to assure success at the professional level.

The importance of a physically imposing post presence to success in the NBA has made the drafting of 7 footers a troublesome and unpredictable business. The search for the next Shaq or Duncan or Wilt and the Championships that would surely follow has caused the demise of many an aspiring GM, consumed by the possibility of unearthing that monster of a man who also possesses the craft to do more than just get in the way and occupy space.

The fact that very, very few players come out of college and into the Draft as the finished product leads those in charge to place huge amounts of emphasis on a player’s potential. ‘He is 7-3, imagine what he COULD be!’.

Indeed.

Alas, most don’t work out that way and that is by no means their fault. The pressure placed on a player drafted high to grow as the GM promised he would is simply a case of misguided expectations.

It is with this in mind that Hasheem Thabeet’s rookie campaign will garner much attention and criticism. You cannot go second overall and not expect media attention, but when you were taken ahead of a number of other exceptional players who apparently could contribute more immediately seemingly because you were simply much taller than them is a sure fire way to attract detractors.

Regardless of the alleged politics surrounding the Memphis Grizzlies #2 pick i.e. Ricky Rubio not wanting to play their, Thabeet has much to do to repay the faith placed in him by the franchise. They believe that he will grow and mature into a player capable of dominating the floor, the anchor to their team.

The major positive for the Tanzanian is that he has got to where he is now despite only taking up the game at the age of 15. That would certainly suggest that he has much to learn and that what he has learnt he has done so in a very short space of time. Given a few years to develop and who knows how good he can be.

The expectations of most people, outside of the Grizzlies hierarchy, are that #2 was just too high for a player who brings relatively little to the table at the moment. So few genuine Big Men have gone on to fulfil the promise that their height has the potential to allow that the bar will be low set for Thabeet: nobody expects him to really excel, nobody will have him pegged as a Rookie of the Year candidate despite having gone second overall.

Perhaps that is unfair, but historically the vast majority of NBA giants have failed to ignite the game as those that drafted them may have wished.

No player taken this year will have a harder task than Thabeet in trying to finish where they started. Ranked the #2 rookie at the end of the season?

A tall order indeed.

NBA Rookie Ratings: Can anyone stop Blake Griffin?

by Jack Maidment

Consider this. If Blake Griffin does not win Rookie of the Year this season, the start to his NBA career will be deemed a disappointment. Such is the pressure that accompanies a player deemed measurably better than the rest of the Class of 2009.

Conceivably there are only three reasons that Griffin won’t become the latest recipient of the award currently held by Derrick Rose.

Injury.

Capitulation under the immense pressure placed on the #1 pick leading to a major loss in confidence. The least likely.

Eclipsed by the break out of another. Possible? Certainly.

The problem for Griffin is that he is the sole bearer of expectations for this draft.

We heard all year how weak this class was or rather how one player was on another level to his peers.

Entering the draft as the unanimous #1 effectively sets Griffin up for a fall. Anything other than stellar performances and ‘star’ numbers will see his reputation take a major hit.

The rookie deemed ‘most likely to be an All Star’ will be at the forefront of all critics and coverage, scrutinised every night.

It is for this reason that the race for ROY honours will be closer than predicted. All people are susceptible to feel pressure and any slip by the Clipper could be capitalised on by the player that adapts best to life in the NBA.

Make no mistake, the rest of the guys taken from #2 down are talented enough to represent and there will be many who slap the faces of all the General Managers who passed on them draft night.

Their status as underdogs and their desire to belong and hang with the elite will drive the young players play pushing them to new levels of performance.

Those players taken by teams where they will play immediately, for example Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans, will have ample opportunity to stake their claim to the top spot.

Those drafted to loaded teams will have to capitalise on their chances when they come along.

For the sake of comment and to banish the ‘Griffin plus everyone else’ status surrounding the 2009 class, let us hope that the ROY race is far from a one horse affair.

Ramon Sessions signs offer sheet with Minnesota Timberwolves: Where does this leave Johny Flynn?

by Jack Maidment

With ‘point guard’ and ‘Minnesota Timberwolves’ in the same sentence you could be forgiven for jumping to conclusions. Ricky Rubio’s decision to remain in Spain for at least another two years barring something more than miraculous happening has entirely dominated not only news regarding the Wolves but also the NBA in general.

But apparently the world, or at least the NBA, has more stories to tell with the news coming out of Minny that Ramon Sessions of Milwaukee Bucks fame has agreed to an offer sheet.

It has been said that all publicity is good publicity but for David Kahn, Rubio’s snub can only be seen as a major problem for a GM who is not only trying to rebuild a team but also salvage and re-brand a franchise long deemed moribund.

The swift play for Sessions is clearly a bid to try and wash away the bitter taste of rejection left with Kahn since Rubio’s statement of intent. Swift the move may be, but the extent to which it will assuage the collective feeling of disappointment felt by all those associated with the Wolves will be minimal at absolute best.

The prospect of having arguably the most exciting young player in the world on your roster is a damn fine way to sell tickets and give your lowly franchise a boost. Bringing in a solid and improving player in Sessions? Just not the same.

And that is to say nothing negative about Sessions. Making it to the League from the D and proceeding to drop 20+ assist nights is something that deserves props: the fact that he has landed a 4 year $16 million contract is testament to the potential he has displayed in his relatively brief stint in the NBA.

This news cements a sense of finality regarding Rubio’s migration West: it’s not happening for a while.

As one case closes, albeit temporarily, another one opens: where does this leave Johny Flynn? The fact that the Wolves drafted two points back to back suggested that they had the faith in both of them to do things in their back court from the off, learning and growing on the job. Kahn said so.

Having Sessions join him in Minnesota must have Flynn a little perturbed to say the least. Bringing in another player at your position is hardly the best way of saying ‘we have confidence in you’ especially given the fact that Session is hardly a veteran himself. He may have played a lot more ball than Flynn but half a season in the NBA hardly puts him light years ahead of the Syracuse man in terms of leadership or savvy.

Training camp is going to be one hell of a ride.

Bruce Bowen Retires. Kobe Smiles.

by Jack Maidment

Bruce Bowen will hang up his sneaks as of today thus ending the Dynasty of Defence (trademarked…) which has haunted the League’s best scorers for countless years.

Twice runner up Defensive Player of the Year and consistently All NBA First and Second Defensive team member Bowen has called time on his lengthy career at the tender age of 38.

With 3 rings to go with his many personal accolades Mr Bowen will be greatly missed from the NBA and the San Antonio Spurs who lose a player who embodies the try-hard and can-do attitude that Greg Popovitch’s team has become famous for.

For reminding us of the importance and craft of defense, we salute you Bruce Bowen.